@article{fdi:010061287,
  title = {{H}igh-resolution {M}ed-{CORDEX} regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies : a first evaluation of the {ALADIN}-{C}limate model in {M}orocco},
  author = {{T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {R}uelland, {D}. and {S}omot, {S}. and {B}ouaicha, {R}. and {S}ervat, {E}ric},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n the framework of the international {CORDEX} program, new regional climate model ({RCM}) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the {M}editerranean region ({M}ed-{CORDEX} initiative). {T}his study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km(2) catchment located in {N}orth {M}orocco. {D}ifferent approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution {RCM} ({ALADIN}-{C}limate) from the {M}ed-{CORDEX} initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different {R}adiative {C}oncentration {P}athway scenarios ({RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5). {T}he main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased {RCM} resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) {A}re the bias-correction of the {RCM} model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) {W}hat is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new {R}adiative {C}oncentration {P}athways scenarios ({RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5)? {R}esults indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. {T}he parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984-2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. {H}owever the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. {T}herefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. {T}he climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively -30 to -57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041-2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between -15 and -19% and for temperature between + 1.3 and + 1.9 degrees {C}.},
  keywords = {{MAROC}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {3721--3739},
  ISSN = {1027-5606},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.5194/hess-17-3721-2013},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061287},
}