@article{fdi:010061186,
  title = {{A} scenario for impacts of water availability loss due to climate change on riverine fish extinction rates},
  author = {{T}edesco, {P}ablo and {O}berdorff, {T}hierry and {C}ornu, {J}ean-{F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {B}eauchard, {O}. and {B}rosse, {S}. and {D}urr, {H}. {H}. and {G}renouillet, {G}. and {L}eprieur, {F}. and {T}isseuil, {C}l{\'e}ment and {Z}aiss, {R}ainer and {H}ugueny, {B}ernard},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {1. {C}urrent models estimating impact of habitat loss on biodiversity in the face of global climate change usually project only percentages of species committed to extinction' on an uncertain time-scale. {H}ere, we show that this limitation can be overcome using an empirically derived background extinction rate-area' curve to estimate natural rates and project future rates of freshwater fish extinction following variations in river drainage area resulting from global climate change. 2. {B}ased on future climatic projections, we quantify future active drainage basin area losses and combine them with the extinction rate-area curve to estimate the future change in extinction rate for each river basin. {W}e then project the number of extinct species in each river basin using a global data base of freshwater fish species richness. 3. {T}he median projected extinction rate owing to climate change conditions is c. 7% higher than the median background extinction rate. {A} closer look at the pattern reveals great geographical variations highlighting an amplification of aridity by 2090 and subsequent increase in extinction rates in presently semi-arid and {M}editerranean regions. {A}mong the 10% most-impacted drainage basins, water availability loss will increase background extinction rates by 18.2 times (median value). 4. {P}rojected numbers of extinct species by 2090 show that only 20 river basins among the 1010 analysed would experience fish species extinctions attributable to water availability loss from climate change. {P}redicted numbers of extinct species for these rivers range from 1 to 5. 5. {S}ynthesis and applications. {O}ur results strongly contrast with previous alarming predictions of huge surface-dependent climate change-driven extinctions for riverine fishes and other taxonomic groups. {F}urthermore, based on well-documented fish extinctions from {C}entral and {N}orth {A}merican drainages over the last century, we also show that recent extinction rates are, on average, 130 times greater than our projected extinction rates from climate change. {T}his last result implies that current anthropogenic threats generate extinction rates in rivers far greater than the ones expected from future water availability loss. {W}e thus argue that conservation actions should be preferentially focused on reducing the impacts of present-day anthropogenic drivers of riverine fish extinctions.},
  keywords = {aridity index ; current anthropogenic threats ; diversity loss ; drainage area ; freshwater fish diversity ; habitat availability ; time to extinction},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {A}pplied {E}cology},
  volume = {50},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {1105--1115},
  ISSN = {0021-8901},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1111/1365-2664.12125},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061186},
}