@article{fdi:010060831,
  title = {{A}ssessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the {S}udanian and {S}ahelian savannas of {W}est {A}frica},
  author = {{S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {R}oudier, {P}. and {Q}uirion, {P}. and {A}lhassane, {A}. and {M}uller, {B}. and {D}ingkuhn, {M}. and {C}iais, {P}. and {G}uimberteau, {M}. and {T}raore, {S}. and {B}aron, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}ub-{S}aharan {W}est {A}frica is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. {H}ere, we have applied the process-based crop model {SARRA}-{H} calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in {S}enegal, {M}ali, {B}urkina {F}aso and {N}iger. {T}he model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a range of cultivars and traditional crop management practices. {W}e applied the model to more than 7000 simulations of yields of sorghum and millet for 35 stations across {W}est {A}frica and under very different future climate conditions. {W}e took into account 35 possible climate scenarios by combining precipitation anomalies from -20% to 20% and temperature anomalies from +0 to +6 degrees {C}. {W}e found that most of the 35 scenarios (31/35) showed a negative impact on yields, up to -41% for +6 degrees {C}/ - 20% rainfall. {M}oreover, the potential future climate impacts on yields are very different from those recorded in the recent past. {T}his is because of the increasingly adverse role of higher temperatures in reducing crop yields, irrespective of rainfall changes. {W}hen warming exceeds +2 degrees {C}, negative impacts caused by temperature rise cannot be counteracted by any rainfall change. {T}he probability of a yield reduction appears to be greater in the {S}udanian region (southern {S}enegal, {M}ali, {B}urkina {F}aso, northern {T}ogo and {B}enin), because of an exacerbated sensitivity to temperature changes compared to the {S}ahelian region ({N}iger, {M}ali, northern parts of {S}enegal and {B}urkina {F}aso), where crop yields are more sensitive to rainfall change. {F}inally, our simulations show that the photoperiod-sensitive traditional cultivars of millet and sorghum used by local farmers for centuries seem more resilient to future climate conditions than modern cultivars bred for their high yield potential (-28% versus -40% for the +4 degrees {C}/ - 20% scenario). {P}hotoperiod-sensitive cultivars counteract the effect of temperature increase on shortening cultivar duration and thus would likely avoid the need to shift to cultivars with a greater thermal time requirement. {H}owever, given the large difference in mean yields of the modern versus traditional varieties, the modern varieties would still yield more under optimal fertility conditions in a warmer world, even if they are more affected by climate change.},
  keywords = {agriculture ; climate change ; impacts ; {W}est {A}frica ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {ZONE} {SOUDANOSAHELIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {8},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {art. 014040},
  ISSN = {1748-9326},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060831},
}