@article{fdi:010060821,
  title = {{F}uture changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over {A}mazonian sub-basins},
  author = {{G}uimberteau, {M}. and {R}onchail, {J}. and {E}spinoza, {J}. {C}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {P}olcher, {J}. and {D}rapeau, {G}. and {G}uyot, {J}ean-{L}oup and {D}ucharne, {A}. and {C}iais, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ecause of climate change, much attention is drawn to the {A}mazon {R}iver basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. {H}ydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the {A}mazon {R}iver sub-basins using the land surface model {ORCHIDEE} and a multimodel approach. {C}limate change scenarios from up to eight {AR}4 {G}lobal {C}limate {M}odels based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. {F}or the middle of the century under the {SRESA}1{B} scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the {A}mazon {R}iver ({O}bidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. {C}ontrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. {I}n the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). {B}y contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the {X}ingu {R}iver, where it reaches 50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. {A} 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. {I}n the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern {B}ranco {R}iver is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. {T}he estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous {B}eni {R}iver), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase in elasticity) than the western sub-basins, experiencing high runoff coefficient and no change in streamflow elasticity to precipitation. {T}hese projections raise important issues for populations living near the rivers whose activity is regulated by the present annual cycle of waters. {T}he question of their adaptability has already arisen.},
  keywords = {{A}mazon ; {ORCHIDEE} ; streamflow extreme ; climate change ; precipitation ; {AMAZONE} {BASSIN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {8},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {014035},
  ISSN = {1748-9326},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014035},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060821},
}