@article{fdi:010060677,
  title = {{A}nalysis of the seismic activity associated with the 2010 eruption of {M}erapi {V}olcano, {J}ava},
  author = {{B}udi-{S}antoso, {A}. and {L}esage, {P}. and {D}wiyono, {S}. and {S}umarti, {S}. and {S}ubandriyo, and {S}urono, and {J}ousset, {P}. and {M}{\'e}taxian, {J}ean-{P}hilippe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he 2010 eruption of {M}erapi is the first large explosive eruption of the volcano that has been instrumentally observed. {T}he main characteristics of the seismic activity during the pre-eruptive period and the crisis are presented and interpreted in this paper. {T}he first seismic precursors were a series of four shallow swarms during the period between 12 and 4 months before the eruption. {T}hese swarms are interpreted as the result of perturbations of the hydrothermal system by increasing heat flow. {S}horter-term and more continuous precursory seismic activity started about 6 weeks before the initial explosion on 26 {O}ctober 2010. {D}uring this period, the rate of seismicity increased almost constantly yielding a cumulative seismic energy release for volcano-tectonic ({VT}) and multiphase events ({MP}) of 7.5 x 10(10) {J}. {T}his value is 3 times the maximum energy release preceding previous effusive eruptions of {M}erapi. {T}he high level reached and the accelerated behavior of both the deformation of the summit and the seismic activity are distinct features of the 2010 eruption. {T}he hypocenters of {VT} events in 2010 occur in two clusters at of 2.5 to 5 km and less than 1.5 km depths below the summit. {A}n aseismic zone was detected at 1.5-2.5 km depth, consistent with studies of previous eruptions, and indicating that this is a robust feature of {M}erapi's subsurface structure. {O}ur analysis suggests that the aseismic zone is a poorly consolidated layer of altered material within the volcano. {D}eep {VT} events occurred mainly before 17 {O}ctober 2010; subsequent to that time shallow activity strongly increased. {T}he deep seismic activity is interpreted as associated with the enlargement of a narrow conduit by an unusually large volume of rapidly ascending magma. {T}he shallow seismicity is interpreted as recording the final magma ascent and the rupture of a summit-dome plug, which triggered the eruption on 26 {O}ctober 2010. {H}indsight forecasting of the occurrence time of the eruption is performed by applying the {M}aterial {F}ailure {F}orecast {M}ethod ({FFM}) using cumulative {R}eal-time {S}eismic {A}mplitude ({RSAM}) calculated both from raw records and on signals classified according to their dominant frequency. {S}table estimates of eruption time with errors as small as +/- 4 h are obtained within a 6 day lapse time before the eruption. {T}his approach could therefore be useful to support decision making in the case of future large explosive episodes at {M}erapi.},
  keywords = {{M}erapi {V}olcano ; {V}olcano seismology ; {E}ruption forecasting ; {P}re-eruptive seismicity ; {RSAM} ; {M}aterial {F}ailure {F}orecast {M}ethod ; {S}ource {L}ocation ; {INDONESIE} ; {JAVA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {V}olcanology and {G}eothermal {R}esearch},
  volume = {261},
  numero = {{SI}},
  pages = {153--170},
  ISSN = {0377-0273},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.024},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060677},
}