@article{fdi:010060371,
  title = {{C}hanges in {S}outh {P}acific rainfall bands in a warming climate},
  author = {{W}idlansky, {M}. {J}. and {T}immermann, {A}. and {S}tein, {K}. and {M}c{G}regor, {S}. and {S}chneider, {N}. and {E}ngland, {M}. {H}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {C}ai, {W}. {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {S}outh {P}acific {C}onvergence {Z}one ({SPCZ}) is the largest rainband in the {S}outhern {H}emisphere and provides most of the rainfall to southwest {P}acific island nations. {I}n spite of various modelling efforts, it remains uncertain how the {SPCZ} will respond to greenhouse warming. {U}sing a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of {SPCZ} rainfall projections in present-generation climate models can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. {H}igher tropical sea surface temperatures lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall whereas weaker sea surface temperature gradients dynamically shift the {SPCZ} northeastward and promote summer drying in areas of the southwest {P}acific. {O}n the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 76 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 1-2 degrees {C} we estimate a 6% decrease of {SPCZ} rainfall with a multi-model uncertainty exceeding +/- 20%. {F}or stronger tropical warming exceeding 3 degrees {C}, a tendency for a wetter {SPCZ} region is identified.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIC} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}limate {C}hange},
  volume = {3},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {417--423},
  ISSN = {1758-678{X}},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1038/nclimate1726},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060371},
}