@article{fdi:010059005,
  title = {{P}rojected climate change and the changing biogeography of coastal {M}editerranean fishes},
  author = {{A}lbouy, {C}. and {G}uilhaumon, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {L}eprieur, {F}. and {L}asram, {F}. {B}. and {S}omot, {S}. and {A}znar, {R}. and {V}elez, {L}aure and {L}e {L}oc'h, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {M}ouillot, {D}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}im {T}o forecast the potential effects of climate change in the {M}editerranean {S}ea on the species richness and mean body size of coastal fish assemblages. {L}ocation {T}he {M}editerranean {S}ea. {M}ethods {U}sing an ensemble forecasting approach, we used species distribution modelling to project the potential distribution of 288 coastal fish species by the middle and end of the 21st century based on the {IPCC} {A}2 scenario implemented with the {M}editerranean climatic model {NEMOMED}8. {R}esults {A} mean rise of 1.4 degrees {C} was projected for the {M}editerranean {S}ea by the middle of the 21st century and 2.8 degrees {C} by the end of the 21st century. {P}rojections for the end of the century suggest that: (1) 54 species are expected to lose their climatically suitable habitat, (2) species richness was predicted to decrease across 70.4% of the continental shelf area, especially in the western {M}editerranean {S}ea and several parts of the {A}egean {S}ea, and (3) mean fish body size would increase over 74.8% of the continental shelf area. {S}mall-bodied species that are not targeted by either commercial or recreational fleets presented, on average, the highest predicted decrease in geographic range size. {M}ain conclusions {P}rojected climate change in the {M}editerranean {S}ea may have deleterious effects on coastal fish diversity, including a significant loss of climatically suitable habitat for endemic fish species. {I}n addition, climate change may contribute to the loss of small and low trophic-level fishes, which may have ecosystem-wide impacts by reducing food supply to larger and higher trophic-level species. {F}ishing pressure is already selectively removing large-bodied species from marine ecosystems, and so fishing and climatic change might act in tandem to drive both direct and secondary extinctions.},
  keywords = {{B}ody size ; climate change ; commercial fishing ; {M}editerranean fish ; recreational fishing ; species distribution modelling ; {MEDITERRANEE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {B}iogeography},
  volume = {40},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {534--547},
  ISSN = {0305-0270},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1111/jbi.12013},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010059005},
}