@article{fdi:010058220,
  title = {{E}xtreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over {M}editerranean catchments in a changing climate},
  author = {{T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {N}eppel, {L}. and {C}arreau, {J}ulie and {S}anchez-{G}omez, {E}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{H}eavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in {M}editerranean catchments. {A} peaks-over-threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in {S}outhern {F}rance. {T}he main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux ({FHUM}) from the {M}editerranean {S}ea. {R}eanalysis data are used to compute the daily {FHUM} during the period 19582008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. {R}esults indicate that the introduction of {FHUM} as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. {T}he seasonal average of {FHUM} can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily {FHUM} values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. {I}n addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute {FHUM} in future climate with the emission scenario {A}1{B} and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. {T}his ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. {B}y comparison to the reference period 19601990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal {FHUM} from the {M}editerranean {S}ea for the projection period 20702099, on average by +22%. {T}his increase in {FHUM} leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 20702099. {H}owever, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100-year quantiles.},
  keywords = {non-stationary ; frequency analysis ; areal rainfall ; climate change ; humidity flux ; {FRANCE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrological {P}rocesses},
  volume = {26},
  numero = {25},
  pages = {3934--3944},
  ISSN = {1099-1085},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1002/hyp.8417},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010058220},
}