@article{fdi:010055927,
  title = {{T}he effect of a gradual response to the environment on species distribution modeling performance},
  author = {{M}eynard, {C}. {N}. and {K}aplan, {D}avid},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}pecies distribution models ({SDM}s) have been widely used in ecology, biogeography, and conservation. {A}lthough ecological theory predicts that species occupancy is dynamic, the outputs of {SDM}s are generally converted into a single occurrence map, and model performance is evaluated in terms of success to predict presences and absences. {T}he aim of this study was to characterize the effects of a gradual response in species occupancy to environmental gradients into the performance of {SDM}s. {F}irst we outline guidelines for the appropriate simulation of artificial species that allows controlling for gradualism and prevalence in the occupancy patterns over an environmental gradient. {S}econd, we derive theoretical expected values for success measures based on presence-absence predictions ({AUC}, {K}appa, sensitivity and specificity). {A}nd finally we used artificial species to exemplify and test the effect of a gradual probabilistic occupancy response to environmental gradients on {SDM} performance. {O}ur results show that when a species responds gradually to an environmental gradient, conventional measures of {SDM} predictive success based on presence-absence cannot be expected to attain currently accepted performance values considered as good, even for a model that recovers perfectly well the true probability of occurrence. {A} gradual response imposes a theoretical expected value for these measures of performance that can be calculated from the species properties. {H}owever, irrespective of the statistical modeling strategy used and of how gradual the species response is, one can recover the true probability of occurrence as a function of environmental variables provided that species and sample prevalence are similar. {T}herefore, model performance based on presence-absence should be judged against the theoretical expected value rather than to absolute values currently in use such as {AUC} > 0.8. {O}verall, we advocate for a wider use of the probability of occurrence and emphasize the need for further technical developments in this sense.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}cography},
  volume = {35},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {499--509},
  ISSN = {0906-7590},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07157.x},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010055927},
}