@article{fdi:010055874,
  title = {{V}ariability of the {A}tlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two {IPCC} scenarios},
  author = {{O}rtega, {P}. and {M}ontoya, {M}. and {G}onzalez-{R}ouco, {F}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {L}egutke, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he variability of the {A}tlantic meridional overturning circulation ({AMOC}) is investigated in several climate simulations with the {ECHO}-{G} atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. {T}his constitutes a new framework in which the {AMOC} response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. {T}he main mechanisms responsible for the {AMOC} variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. {A}t high frequencies, the {AMOC} is directly responding to local changes in the {E}kman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: {E}l {N}io-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}), the {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}scillation ({NAO}), and the {E}ast {A}tlantic ({EA}) pattern. {A}t low frequencies, the {AMOC} is largely controlled by convection activity south of {G}reenland. {A}gain, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. {P}ositive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1 year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive {NAO}-like pattern. {F}inally, the sensitivity of the {AMOC} to three different forcing factors is investigated. {T}he major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. {S}tarting in the {I}ndustrial {E}ra and continuing in the future scenarios, the {AMOC} experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. {A}lso, a weak but significant {AMOC} strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. {I}n contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the {AMOC} is observed. {I}ndeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the {N}ordic {S}eas, with a marginal contribution to the {AMOC} variability in the {ECHO}-{G} runs.},
  keywords = {{A}tlantic meridional overturning circulation ; {F}uture climate change ; {M}ultidecadal variability ; {F}orced millennial simulations},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {38},
  numero = {9-10},
  pages = {1925--1947},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-011-1081-6},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010055874},
}