@article{fdi:010053813,
  title = {{I}nterannual relationships between {I}ndian {S}ummer {M}onsoon and {I}ndo-{P}acific coupled modes of variability during recent decades},
  author = {{B}oschat, {G}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal and {M}asson, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{V}arious {SST} indices in the {I}ndo-{P}acific region have been proposed in the literature in light of a long-range seasonal forecasting of the {I}ndian {S}ummer {M}onsoon ({ISM}). {H}owever, the dynamics associated with these different indices have never been compared in detail. {T}o this end, the present work re-examines the variabilities of {ISM} rainfall, onset and withdrawal dates at interannual timescales and explores their relationships with {E}l {N}io-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) and various modes of coupled variability in the {I}ndian {O}cean. {B}ased on recent findings in the literature, five {SST} indices are considered here: {N}io3.4 {SST} index in {D}ecember-{J}anuary both preceding [{N}ino(-1)] and following the {ISM} [{N}ino(0)], {S}outh {E}ast {I}ndian {O}cean ({SEIO}) {SST} in {F}ebruary-{M}arch, the {I}ndian {O}cean {B}asin ({IOB}) mode in {A}pril-{M}ay and, finally, the {I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole ({IOD}) averaged from {S}eptember to {N}ovember, also, both preceding [{IOD}(-1)] and following the {ISM} [{IOD}(0)]. {T}he respective merits and associated dynamics of the selected indices are compared through various correlation and regression analyses. {O}ur first result is a deceptive one: the statistical relationships with the {ISM} rainfall at the continental and seasonal scales are modest and only barely significant, particularly for the {IOD}, {IOB} and {N}ino(-1) indices. {H}owever, a detailed analysis shows that statistical relationships with the {ISM} rainfall time series are statistically biased as the {ISM} rainfall seems to be shaped by much intraseasonal variability, linked in particular to the timing of the onset and withdrawal of the {ISM}. {S}urprisingly, analysis within the {ISM} season shows that {N}ino(-1), {IOB} and {SEIO} indices give rise to prospects of comparatively higher {ISM} previsibility for both the {ISM} onset and the amount of rainfall during the second half of the {ISM} season. {T}he {IOD} seems to play only a secondary role. {M}oreover, our work shows that these indices are associated with distinct processes occurring within the {I}ndian {O}cean from late boreal winter or early spring onwards. {T}he regression analyses also illustrate that these (local) mechanisms are dynamically and remotely linked to different phases of {ENSO} in the equatorial {P}acific, a result which may have useful implications in terms of forecasting strategies since the choice of the better indices then hinges on the concurrent phasing of the {ENSO} cycle.},
  keywords = {{I}ndian {S}ummer {M}onsoon ; {I}ndian {O}cean ; {ENSO} ; {L}ong-range predictability ; {O}cean-atmosphere interactions},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {37},
  numero = {5-6},
  pages = {1019--1043},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2011},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-010-0887-y},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010053813},
}