Dégallier Nicolas, Favier C., Menkès Christophe, Lengaigne Matthieu, Ramalho W. M., Souza R., Servain Jacques, Boulanger Jean-Philippe. (2010). Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention : modeling climate impact on dengue transmission. Climatic Change, 98 (3-4), p. 581-592. ISSN 0165-0009.
Titre du document
Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention : modeling climate impact on dengue transmission
Dégallier Nicolas, Favier C., Menkès Christophe, Lengaigne Matthieu, Ramalho W. M., Souza R., Servain Jacques, Boulanger Jean-Philippe
Source
Climatic Change, 2010,
98 (3-4), p. 581-592 ISSN 0165-0009
Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Entomologie médicale / Parasitologie / Virologie [052]
