@article{fdi:010048207,
  title = {{E}l {N}ino in a changing climate},
  author = {{Y}eh, {S}. {W}. and {K}ug, {J}. {S}. and {D}ewitte, {B}oris and {K}won, {M}. {H}. and {K}irtman, {B}. {P}. and {J}in, {F}. {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}l {N}ino events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial {P}acific {O}cean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. {U}nderstanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of {E}l {N}ino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. {R}ecent studies(1-5) show that the canonical {E}l {N}ino has become less frequent and that a different kind of {E}l {N}ino has become more common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures ({SST}s) in the central {P}acific are flanked on the east and west by cooler {SST}s. {T}his type of {E}l {N}ino, termed the central {P}acific {E}l {N}ino ({CP}-{E}l {N}ino; also termed the dateline {E}l {N}ino(2), {E}l {N}ino {M}odoki(3) or warm pool {E}l {N}ino(5)), differs from the canonical eastern {P}acific {E}l {N}ino ({EP}-{E}l {N}ino) in both the location of maximum {SST} anomalies and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. {H}ere we show changes in the ratio of {CP}-{E}l {N}ino to {EP}-{E}l {N}ino under projected global warming scenarios from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject phase 3 multi-model data set(6). {U}sing calculations based on historical {E}l {N}ino indices, we find that projections of anthropogenic climate change are associated with an increased frequency of the {CP}-{E}l {N}ino compared to the {EP}-{E}l {N}ino. {W}hen restricted to the six climate models with the best representation of the twentieth-century ratio of {CP}-{E}l {N}ino to {EP}-{E}l {N}ino, the occurrence ratio of {CP}-{E}l {N}ino/{EP}-{E}l {N}ino is projected to increase as much as five times under global warming. {T}he change is related to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial {P}acific.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature},
  volume = {461},
  numero = {7263},
  pages = {511--514},
  ISSN = {0028-0836},
  year = {2009},
  DOI = {10.1038/nature08316},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010048207},
}