@article{fdi:010041518,
  title = {{S}imulated impacts of climate change and land-clearing on runoff from a small {S}ahelian catchment},
  author = {{S}eguis, {L}uc and {C}appelaere, {B}ernard and {M}ilesi, {G}{\'e}raldine and {P}eugeot, {C}hristophe and {M}assuel, {S}ylvain and {F}avreau, {G}uillaume},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n the {S}ahel, there are few long-term data series available to estimate the climatic and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in small catchments. {S}ince 1950, land clearing has enhanced runoff. {T}he question is whether and by how much this anthropogenic effect offsets the current drought. {T}o answer this question, a physically based distributed hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in a small {S}ahelian catchment in {N}iger, from the 1950-1998 rain-series. {T}he simulation was carried out for three soil surface states of the catchment (1950, 1975 and 1992). {T}he catchment is characterized by an increase in cultivated land, with associated fallow, from 6% in 1950 to 56% in 1992, together with an increase in the extent of eroded land (from 7 to 16%), at the expense of the savanna. {E}ffects of climate and land use are first analysed separately: irrespective of the land cover state, the simulated mean annual runoff decreases by about 40% from the wet period (1950-1969) to the dry period (1970-1998); calculated on the 1950-1998 rainfall-series, the changes that occurred in land cover between 1950 and 1992 multiplies the mean annual runoff by a factor close to three. {T}he analysis of a joint climatic and anthropogenic change shows that the transition from a wet period under a 'natural' land cover (1950) to a dry period under a cultivated land cover (1992) results in an increase in runoff of the order of 30 to 70%. {A}t the scale of a small {S}ahelian catchment, the anthropogenic impact on runoff is probably more important than that of drought. {T}his figure for relative increase in runoff contributions to ponds, preferential sites of seepage to groundwater, is less than that currently estimated for aquifer recharge, which has been causing a significant continuous water table rise over the same period. {C}opyright ({C}) 2004 {J}ohn {W}iley {S}ons, {L}td.},
  keywords = {{S}ahel ; distributed modelling ; climatic change ; {H}ortonian runoff ; land cover change ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE} ; {NIGER}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrological {P}rocesses},
  volume = {18},
  numero = {17},
  pages = {3401--3413},
  ISSN = {0885-6087},
  year = {2004},
  DOI = {10.1002/hyp.1503},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010041518},
}