Bacaër Nicolas, Guernaoui S. (2006). The epidemic threshold of vector-borne diseases with seasonality. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 53 (3), p. 421-436. ISSN 0303-6812.
Titre du document
The epidemic threshold of vector-borne diseases with seasonality
Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2006,
53 (3), p. 421-436 ISSN 0303-6812
Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by sandflies. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model which takes into account the seasonality of the vector population and the distribution of the latent period from infection to symptoms in humans. Parameters are fitted to real data from the province of Chichaoua, Morocco. We also introduce a generalization of the definition of the basic reproduction number R-0 which is adapted to periodic environments. This R-0 is estimated numerically for the epidemic in Chichaoua; R-0 similar or equal to 1.94. The model suggests that the epidemic could be stopped if the vector population were reduced by a factor (R-0)(2) similar or equal to 3.76.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Santé : généralités [050]
