Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Guengant Jean-Pierre, May J.F. (2001). Revisiting the African fertility exception. In : Annual meeting of the Population Association of America : session 76 : the future of fertility in the next 50 years. Niamey : IRD, 25 p. multigr. Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America : Session 76 : The Future of Fertility in the Next 50 Years, DC (USA), 2001/03/29-31.

Titre du document
Revisiting the African fertility exception
Année de publication
2001
Type de document
Colloque
Auteurs
Guengant Jean-Pierre, May J.F.
In
Annual meeting of the Population Association of America : session 76 : the future of fertility in the next 50 years
Source
Niamey : IRD, 2001, 25 p. multigr.
Colloque
Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America : Session 76 : The Future of Fertility in the Next 50 Years, DC (USA), 2001/03/29-31
The onset of the fertility transition observed in several sub-Saharan countries in the 1990s has led to think that African fertility might, over the next 50 years, catch up with lower levels of fertility experienced in the rest of the world. The authors attempt to demonstrate that, on the contrary, future fertility trends in Africa will diverge from those of the rest of the world, will probably remain above replacement levels and, moreover, will become more diverse within the region (the analysis is conducted for four sub-regions : Eastern, Middle, Southern, and Western Africa). The authors examine several features linked to the proximate determinants of fertility which taken alone explain these forthcoming trends even without considering the intermediate determinants of fertility. These factors are : the initial low levels and the slow increases of contraceptive prevalence rates : the contraceptive usage mostly for birth spacing and not for birth limiting ; the dearth of quality reproductive health and family planning services ; and the lack of strong policy commitment toward the ideal of family planning and the setting up of efficient programs. Finally, the authors discuss four less documented factors, also linked to the proximate determinants, that will also undoubtedly affect fertility outcomes in the decades to come. These are : the low demand vs. poor supply vicious circle for the expansion of family planning services ; the role of traditional contraception in the fertility transition ; the importance of induced abortion in place of contraceptive method use ; and the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on attitudes to family planning and fertility. The authors do not discuss the intermediate determinants of fertility, such as education or the status of women, which are also far from favorable in sub-Saharan Africa but where improvements are much needed if one wishes to accelerate the fertility transition. (Résumé d'auteur)
Plan de classement
Démographie, population [108DEMOG1] ; Famille, planification de la famille [108DEMOG2]
Descripteurs
CROISSANCE DEMOGRAPHIQUE ; FECONDITE ; TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIQUE ; BAISSE DE LA FECONDITE ; TAUX DE NATALITE ; CONTRACEPTION ; TRADITION ; PLANIFICATION DE LA FAMILLE ; AVORTEMENT ; SIDA ; EPIDEMIE ; FEMME ; SCOLARISATION ; EDUCATIO N SANITAIRE ; DONNEES STATISTIQUES ; REGION ; PERSPECTIVE ; VIH
Description Géographique
AFRIQUE SUBSAHARIENNE ; AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST ; AFRIQUE DE L'EST ; AFRIQUE DU SUD
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010025414] ; Niamey (LASDEL)
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010025414
Contact