@article{PAR00012136,
  title = {{T}esting probabilistic seismic hazard estimates against accelerometric data in two countries : {F}rance and {T}urkey},
  author = {{T}asan, {H}. and {B}eauval, {C}{\'e}line and {H}elmstetter, {A}. and {S}andikkaya, {A}. and {G}ueguen, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}robabilistic seismic hazard models ({PSHM}) are used for quantifying the seismic hazard at a site or a grid of sites. {I}n this study, a methodology is proposed to compare the distribution of the expected number of sites with exceedance with the observed number considering an acceleration threshold at a set of recording sites. {T}he method is applied to {F}rance and {T}urkey. {T}he {F}rench accelerometric database is checked to produce a reliable accelerometric data set. {I}n addition, we also used a synthetic data set inferred from an instrumental catalogue combined with a ground-motion prediction equation. {T}he results show that the {MEDD}2002 and {AFPS}2006 {PSH} models overestimate the number of sites with exceedance for low acceleration levels (below 40 cm s(-2)) or short return periods (smaller than 50 yr for {AFPS}2006 and 475 yr for {MEDD}2002). {F}or larger acceleration levels, there are few observations and none of the models is rejected. {I}n {T}urkey, the {SHARE} hazard estimates can be tested against ground-motion levels of interest in earthquake engineering. {A}s the completeness issue is crucial, the recorded data at each station is analysed to detect potential gaps in the recording. {A}s most accelerometric stations are located on soil, accelerations at rock are estimated using a site-amplification model. {D}ifferent minimum intersite distances and station configurations are considered. {T}he observed numbers of sites with exceedance are well within the bounds of the predicted distribution for accelerations between 103 and 397 cm s(-2). {F}or higher levels, both the observed number and the predicted percentile 2.5 are zero, and no conclusion can be drawn.},
  keywords = {{P}robabilistic forecasting ; {S}tatistical seismology ; {E}urope ; {FRANCE} ; {TURQUIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {J}ournal {I}nternational},
  volume = {198},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {1554--1571},
  ISSN = {0956-540{X}},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1093/gji/ggu191},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00012136},
}