@article{PAR00011060,
  title = {{M}odelling in infectious diseases : between haphazard and hazard},
  author = {{N}euberger, {A}. and {P}aul, {M}. and {N}izar, {A}. and {R}aoult, {D}idier},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}odelling of infectious diseases is difficult, if not impossible. {N}o epidemic has ever been truly predicted, rather than being merely noticed when it was already ongoing. {M}odelling the future course of an epidemic is similarly tenuous, as exemplified by ominous predictions during the last influenza pandemic leading to exaggerated national responses. {T}he continuous evolution of microorganisms, the introduction of new pathogens into the human population and the interactions of a specific pathogen with the environment, vectors, intermediate hosts, reservoir animals and other microorganisms are far too complex to be predictable. {O}ur environment is changing at an unprecedented rate, and human-related factors, which are essential components of any epidemic prediction model, are difficult to foresee in our increasingly dynamic societies. {A}ny epidemiological model is, by definition, an abstraction of the real world, and fundamental assumptions and simplifications are therefore required. {I}ndicator-based surveillance methods and, more recently, {I}nternet biosurveillance systems can detect and monitor outbreaks of infections more rapidly and accurately than ever before. {A}s the interactions between microorganisms, humans and the environment are too numerous and unexpected to be accurately represented in a mathematical model, we argue that prediction and model-based management of epidemics in their early phase are quite unlikely to become the norm.},
  keywords = {{E}pidemics ; epidemiology ; models ; pandemic ; prediction},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}linical {M}icrobiology and {I}nfection},
  volume = {19},
  numero = {11},
  pages = {993--998},
  ISSN = {1198-743{X}},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1111/1469-0691.12309},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00011060},
}