@article{PAR00007494,
  title = {{E}volution des extr{\^e}mes hydrom{\'e}triques en {F}rance {\`a} partir de donn{\'e}es observ{\'e}es},
  author = {{R}enard, {B}. and {L}ang, {M}. and {B}ois, {P}. and {D}upeyrat, {A}. and {M}estre, {O}. and {N}iel, {H}{\'e}l{\`e}ne and {G}ailhard, {J}. and {L}aurent, {C}. and {N}eppel, {L}. and {S}auquet, {E}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{FRE}},
  abstract = {{D}e nombreuses interrogations subsistent aujourd'hui sur l'{\'e}volution des extr{\^e}mes hydrologiques en {F}rance, suite aux effets attendus d'un changement climatique. {N}ous pr{\'e}sentons les r{\'e}sultats d'une analyse men{\'e}e dans le cadre d'un projet {PNRH} sur la d{\'e}tection de tendances ou de ruptures dans le r{\'e}gime des crues et des {\'e}tiages en {F}rance. {U}n jeu de 192 longues s{\'e}ries hydrom{\'e}triques a {\'e}t{\'e} {\'e}tabli, en retenant les stations avec au moins 40 ann{\'e}es de mesure et des courbes de tarage r{\'e}put{\'e}es bonnes. {U}n ensemble de tests statistiques a {\'e}t{\'e} appliqu{\'e} sur diff{\'e}rentes variables hydrologiques en crue (d{\'e}bit maximum annuel et valeurs sup{\'e}rieures {\`a} un seuil, fr{\'e}quence des {\'e}v{\`e}nements) et en {\'e}tiage (d{\'e}bit minimum annuel, dur{\'e}e et volume d'{\'e}tiage).{L}es r{\'e}sultats obtenus pour le r{\'e}gime des crues ne montrent pas de tendance g{\'e}n{\'e}ralis{\'e}e, ni {\`a} la hausse ni {\`a} la baisse. {L}'augmentation significative des dommages dus aux inondations provient en fait d'une augmentation de la vuln{\'e}rabilit{\'e} aux inondations, suite {\`a} une urbanisation mal ma{\^i}tris{\'e}e. {L}es changements d{\'e}tect{\'e}s sur les {\'e}tiages semblent plus importants et des investigations sont en cours pour appr{\'e}cier ce qui rel{\`e}ve d'influences anthropiques, de probl{\`e}mes m{\'e}trologiques et d'influences climatiques.{P}ar ailleurs, un nouveau cadre d'analyse probabiliste {B}ayesienne a {\'e}t{\'e} mis au point pour int{\'e}grer la non stationnarit{\'e} comme une incertitude suppl{\'e}mentaire dans la pr{\'e}d{\'e}termination des valeurs extr{\^e}mes de r{\'e}f{\'e}rence. / {I}mpact of climate change on hydrological extremes in {F}rance is still an open question. {R}esults of a {PNRH} project about detecting trends or step-changes in the extreme hydrological regimes in {F}rance are here presented. {A} set of 192 hydrological series has been used, with at least 40 years of data and good quality rating curves. {S}tatistical tests were applied on hydrological variables describing high flows (annual maxima, peak-over-threshold discharges and events frequency) and low flows (annual minima, duration and volume of droughts). {C}oncerning high flows, no evidence of a consistent change has been found. {T}he significant increase in the damages induced by floods thus arises from an increase in the vulnerability, caused by an unreasonable urbanization. {T}rends in annual minima may be stronger, but additional studies are needed in order to differentiate anthropogenic, metrological and climatic factors. {M}oreover, a {B}ayesian framework has been constructed in order to incorporate the hypothesis of stationarity as a new uncertainty in floods or droughts frequency analysis.},
  keywords = {{CRUE} ; {ETIAGE} ; {CHANGEMENT} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {ANALYSE} {STATISTIQUE} ; {RUPTURE} ; {THEORIE} {DES} {VALEURS} {EXTREMES} ; {ANALYSE} {FREQUENTIELLE} ; {STATISTIQUE} {BAYESIENNE} ; {NON} {STATIONNARITE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{L}a {H}ouille {B}lanche},
  volume = {6},
  numero = {},
  pages = {48--54},
  year = {2006},
  DOI = {10.1051/lhb:2006100},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00007494},
}