@article{PAR00000300,
  title = {{E}vidence of a shift in the cyclicity of {A}ntarctic seabird dynamics linked to climate},
  author = {{J}enouvrier, {S}. and {W}eimerskirch, {H}. and {B}arbraud, {C}. and {P}ark, {Y}. {H}. and {C}azelles, {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}cosystems and populations are known to be influenced not only by long-term climatic trends, but also by other short-term climatic modes, such as interannual and decadal-scale variabilities. {B}ecause interactions between climatic forcing, biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems are subtle and complex, analysis of long-term series of both biological and physical factors is essential to understanding these interactions. {H}ere, we apply a wavelet analysis simultaneously to long-term datasets on the environment and on the populations and breeding success of three {A}ntarctic seabirds (southern fulmar, snow petrel, emperor penguin) breeding in {T}erre {A}delie, to study the effects of climate fluctuations on {A}ntarctic marine ecosystems. {W}e show that over the past 40 years, populations and demographic parameters of the three species fluctuate with a periodicity of 3-5 years that was also detected in sea-ice extent and the {S}outhern {O}scillation {I}ndex. {A}lthough the major periodicity of these interannual fluctuations is not common to different species and environmental variables, their cyclic characteristics reveal a significant change since 1980. {M}oreover, sliding-correlation analysis highlighted the relationships between environmental variables and the demography of the three species, with important change of correlation occurring between the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. {T}hese results suggest that a regime shift has probably occurred during this period, significantly affecting the {A}ntarctic ecosystem, but with contrasted effects on the three species.},
  keywords = {climate change ; cyclic variability ; regime shift ; {A}ntarctic marine predators ; time series analysis},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {R}oyal {S}ociety {B} {B}iological {S}ciences},
  volume = {272},
  numero = {1566},
  pages = {887--895},
  ISSN = {0962-8452},
  year = {2005},
  DOI = {10.1098/rspb.2004.2978},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00000300},
}